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Why the Value of a Trade Is Not Always the Same

Careful! A good trade in one league could be a bad trade in another league.

Let's discuss the various factors that go into analyzing a trade. We'll also take a look at how Trade Fox accounts for these factors in order to provide you with a trade analysis that is as accurate as possible.

League Type: Redraft vs. Dynasty

One of the biggest factors in valuing a trade is whether the trade is in a redraft or dynasty league.

In redraft leagues, teams have to draft new players each season and do not carry over their players to the next season. In dynasty leagues, teams carry over their players to the next season each year.

Since teams carry over their players in dynasty leagues, trade value considers another factor: age.

Let's look at a simple example:

  • Justin Jefferson
    • Redraft Value: 8038
    • Dynasty Value: 11000
  • Tyreek Hill
    • Redraft Value: 10018
    • Dynasty Value: 8105

In redraft, Tyreek Hill is more valuable despite nearing the end of his career since he is on pace for a record-breaking season. In dynasty, Justin Jefferson is more valuable since he is only 24 years old and has many years of high-level production left.

Trade Fox accounts for redraft and dynasty differences by using the appropriate values from FantasyCalc, which already has distinct ratings depending on league type.

Roster Type: Superflex vs. Non-Superflex

Another big factor in determing trade value is whether the trade league rosters have a superflex position.

A superflex roster position allows a team to start another QB, RB, WR, or TE. Most notably, this makes it more important to have a deeper QB room since teams can start two QBs. It also makes it more valuable to have a deeper roster in general in order to consistently fill the additional superflex roster spot.

Let's jump straight into an example:

  • Justin Jefferson
    • Superflex Value: 6684
    • Non-Superflex Value: 7909
  • Lamar Jackson
    • Superflex Value: 8471
    • Non-Superflex Value: 4896

In superflex, Lamar Jackson is more valuable since he is a high-tiered QB that could fill a superflex spot. In non-superflex, Justin Jefferson is more valuable since he is one of the best WRs in the game, and QBs have less value since there is only one QB roster spot.

Again, Trade Fox accounts for superflex differences by using the appropriate values from FantasyCalc, which already has distinct ratings depending on superflex and non-superflex.

Other League Settings: PPR and League Size

Additionally, the amount of points-per-reception (PPR) and the size of your league can influence the value of a trade.

For example, target hog RBs like Austin Ekeler or Alvin Kamara (Carr's favorite checkdown target!) might be more valuable in PPR leagues. Additionally, middle to lower ranked players like Curtis Samuel could player a valuable role in a 12+ team league where value is spread thinner across teams.

Trade Fox does not account for PPR or league size settings. According to FantasyCalc's statistics, PPR and league size settings do not have a significant impact on trade value. While this is something we'd like to add in the future, the overhead in getting the exact value might inhibit the Trade Fox experience, especially since the values differ so little depending on these settings. For now, Trade Fox determines all values based on 0.5 PPR and 12 team leagues.

Trade Team Rosters

Even within the same league, a trade between two teams might be valued differently than a trade between two other teams.

For example, a RB-needy team might be willing to give a 1st round pick (valued at 3110) for someone like James Connor (valued at 1666).

Trade Fox does not account for the context of each team's roster. While it would be nice if Trade Fox provided insights here, it's ultimately up to each team's manager (you!) to make the right call. Besides, you know your team best!

Understand The Context

Overall, make sure you understand the context surrounding trades in your league. For a dynasty league, keep an eye on the age of each player in the trade. For a superflex league, consider the value of depth, especially at the QB position. These are some of the most critical factors that can easily influence whether a trade is good or bad.

Happy trading, and we can't wait for Trade Fox to analyze more trades in your league!